DSCC’s Future of OLED Manufacturing Report will be released shortly and includes detailed analysis and insights on how OLED panels and manufacturing are likely to evolve as the market expands. It examines:
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DSCC released its latest display equipment spending forecasts in November as part of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. Equipment spending was increased by 10% or $6.2B to $69B from 2020-2026 on the addition of new G6 and G8.7 fabs using photo patterning. As indicated, we now see 2024 up 82% to $8.5B and 2025 up 25% to $10.6B after spending stalled in 2023, down 61% to $4.7B. OLED spending is expected to dominate, accounting for a 54% share in 2024, an 84% share in 2025 and an 82% share in 2026.
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The Samsung Galaxy S24 series is expected to be announced in mid-January, almost one month earlier than previous Unpacked events for the S series. As we show in the DSCC Monthly Flagship Smartphone Tracker, the S24 series panel shipment estimates through January 2024 are tracking 11% higher than the S23 series and 53% higher than the S22 series during the same time period of October – January leading up to the launch. The S24 series is expected to use an LTPO backplane for the S24, S24+ and S24 Ultra (the S23 and S23+ used an LTPS backplane). Our supply chain sources have also confirmed that the S24 will have a larger display of 6.16” versus 6.06” for the S2,3 and the S24+ will have a 6.66” display size versus a 6.61” display for the S23+. The S24 series is also expected to use the new 4nm Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and the 4nm Samsung Exynos 2400 for some regions.
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US-based OLED material supplier Universal Display Corporation (UDC) announced last week that it had signed long-term OLED material supply and license agreements with Chinese flat panel display maker BOE Technology Group Co (BOE). UDC will continue to supply its proprietary phosphorescent OLED materials and technology to BOE through its wholly owned subsidiary, UDC Ireland Limited. Further details and financial terms of the agreements have not been disclosed.
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BOE formally announced its G8.7 IT OLED fab known as B16 last week after receiving government approval. The fab will be based in Chengdu, with ownership split 53% for BOE and 47% for the Chengdu provincial government. The glass substrate size will be 2290mm x 2620mm, which we refer to as G8.7. The capacity will be 32K substrates per month and the build-out is projected to take 34 months. BOE announced the total capex at $8.8B for this project. It is expected to have an LTPO backplane rather than a high mobility oxide backplane, which SDC and LGD are pursuing which may make multi-sourcing between BOE and SDC/LGD problematic. Equipment spending is also expected to be higher for LTPO vs. high mobility oxide as quantified in DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. That report also projects the timing for B16’s POs with the first phase most recently projected for March of 2024 with delivery by the middle of 2025 and production by the end of 2026. We don’t believe BOE has yet decided who its fine metal mask vacuum thermal evaporation (FMM VTE) supplier will be with Tokki the expected winner, but tool cost a major concern.
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As we approach the year-end, LCD TV panel prices are firmly on a downward path. As prices increased during Q2 and Q3, LCD fab utilization increased correspondingly to a point where supply exceeded demand. The TV supply chain has accumulated enough inventory to support the big selling season in the fourth quarter, so we are now seeing a shift in the supply/demand balance from shortage to oversupply, with Q4 prices for all screen sizes coming down from the September peak, and our outlook is that prices will continue to decline in the first quarter of 2024.
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The central promotional event of the holiday season happened this week, and retailers offered all-time low prices for TVs during Black Friday. Although LCD TV panel prices are higher today than a year ago, many of the Black Friday deals were made months ago based on panel prices in the summer which were lower. The competition from LCD is also pulling down OLED TV prices, which are also hitting all-time lows.
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All six of the publicly traded panel makers in China released their financial reports for the third quarter of 2023 last week, and the results showed diverging fortunes. The companies focused on large-area LCD (BOE, CSOT, CHOT) benefited from rising prices, while panel makers focused on small displays including OLED (Tianma, Visionox, EverDisplay) fared worse.
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As we progress through the fourth quarter, LCD TV panel prices are again declining. As prices increased during Q2 and Q3, LCD fab utilization increased correspondingly to a point where supply exceeded demand. The TV supply chain has accumulated enough inventory to support the big selling season in the fourth quarter, so we are now seeing a shift in the supply/demand balance from shortage to oversupply, with November prices for all screen sizes coming down from the September peak, and our outlook is that prices will continue to decline in December.
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The iPhone 15 series has now been available for over a month. Our latest release of the Monthly Flagship Smartphone Tracker shows that panel shipments for the iPhone 15 series were 24% higher than the iPhone 14 series and 27% higher than the iPhone 13 series during the same time period through September.
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