In a glitzy and gala ceremony today in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, Foxconn broke ground on the first large-scale TFT LCD fab outside of Asia, and the first in the USA, in a ceremony highlighted by the appearance of President Trump.
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After the ceremonial groundbreaking at Foxconn’s “Wisconn Valley” complex in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin (see my last blog post), President Trump visited a nearby Foxconn pilot TV production site where, with leaders from the Wisconsin political scene and from Foxconn, Trump celebrated the launch of the first LCD manufacturing site in the USA (and the first outside of Asia).
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I wrote this piece originally for our weekly newsletter, the Display Supply Chain Monitor, right after the 2016 election. Originally published on November 14th, 2016, it holds up pretty well and is likely interesting to DSCC blog readers.
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The date for the Foxconn Groundbreaking Ceremony is again set for June 28th, and several changes in the schedule have occurred in order to accommodate the schedule of President Trump, according to this article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
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The Q2’18 issue of DSCC’s Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab UtilizationReport shows that Samsung Display’s utilization has begun to improve significantly as the build has started for new smartphones from Apple, Samsung and other brands.
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Last week we saw 6 different display suppliers release their earnings results. In general, we saw Chinese suppliers outperform Taiwan and Korean suppliers helped by government subsidies, lower labor and fab costs and the exclusion of interest payments in odd quarters. We saw flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments drop rapidly and LTPS LCDs take share from OLEDs. Smartphone panel volumes were weak, especially at the high end, which boosted blended unit ASPs and reduced area ASPs as smartphone panels carry higher prices on an area basis. While OLED volumes fell faster than LTPS volumes, OLED margins continued to outperform LCD margins. Panel makers are optimistic about TV volumes in the rest of 2018 despite experiencing above average channel inventories in Q1’18. We did see LG reporting OLED TVs in shortage and reveal they may convert even more LCD capacity to OLED TV capacity. Let’s start with some comparisons.
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Last week, I gave an outline of the possible impact that Trump administration actions on US-China trade could have on the display industry, and on Tuesday, April 3rd, the Trump administration released the list of products subject to a new 25% tariff. Of the 1,333 different product categories included in the trade action, the single largest category by value is TVs. The new tariffs on TVs will have companies on both sides of the Pacific scrambling to redirect the display supply chain.
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In the latest round of an emerging trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies, China initiated tariffs on specific US goods, in retaliation to the US imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum products from China. While these moves have not yet affected display products, the potential impact of a trade dispute could be a huge disruption in the display industry value chain and has caused the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) to mobilize its members to lobby the US government to try to avert a trade war.
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DSCC released the forecast slides for the Q1’18 issue of its Quarterly OLED Shipment and Fab Utilization Report last week. Given the lower than expected iPhone X shipments, reduced fab utilization at Samsung and related fab delays, we have lowered our outlook for 2018 by 22% and now expect 30% growth to $30.3B as shown in Figure 1. From 2017 to 2022, we now expect 23% CAGR instead of 27% CAGR with the 2022 market reaching $64.3B instead of $79.6B. It is still a rapidly growing market as most consumers prefer OLEDs and OLED capacity is still growing rapidly. It is just growing slower than previously expected.
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With flexible OLEDs struggling in the market despite being named the best smartphone displays ever made, we are starting to see some fab delays which will be quantified in terms of equipment spending in our upcoming Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Service update.
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