Five of the six publicly traded panel makers in China released their financial reports for the first half of 2022, and the market downturn in Q2 affected revenues and profits.
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LCD TV panel prices reached all-time lows in August but they continue to decline in September, and we continue to forecast that the industry will have an “L-shaped” recovery in the fourth quarter. In other words, no recovery at all until 2023; the only question is how low prices will go before they flatten out. The ‘perfect storm’ of a continued oversupply, near-universally weak demand and excessive inventory throughout the supply chain has combined, and every screen size of TV panel has reached an all-time low price. Although fab utilization slowed sharply starting in July, we do not see any signal to suggest that prices can increase any time soon.
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DSCC is now tracking all flexible OLED panel shipments by brand, model and panel supplier on a monthly basis. For the iPhone 14, which will be launched at the “Far Out” launch event on September 7th with the invite shown below, panel shipments started in June. As indicated, shipments jumped from 1.8M in June to 5.35M in July, over 10M in August and are expected to be over 16.5M in September. Cumulative panel shipments are over 34M.
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Last week, Samsung announced that they received pre-orders amounting to 970K units in the first seven days for the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4. We see production of Korean models at a higher figure than this through August so it shouldn’t lead to extended delivery times. Samsung has ambitious plans for the Flip 4 and Fold 4, which you can see in comparison to the Flip 3 and Fold 3.
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TCL Electronics issued its 2022 Interim Report last week covering the first half of the year, reporting a sharp decrease in net profits on a modest decrease in revenues. The slowdown in the global TV market led to a double-digit decrease in revenues from its TV business. TCL continues to evolve from a TV-centric contract manufacturer to a global consumer electronics brand, but TVs remain the dominant source of revenues.
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Two weeks ago, we covered Corning’s strong Q2 earnings release, and here we will cover its two Japanese competitors, NEG and AGC, and provide a comparison. All three glassmakers saw the impact of the slowdown of panel maker utilization in the second quarter, but all three showed robust corporate results, nevertheless.
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As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues increased 12% Y/Y on 3% Y/Y unit declines as a result of form factor mix changes for smartphones and Y/Y growth for automotive, game, notebook PCs, monitors, tablets and AR/VR in Q2’22.
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The current oversupply in the flat panel display industry will persist throughout the full year 2023 and will slowly correct thereafter, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand Report, updated last week. We covered the demand portion of this report in an article last week, and this week we will describe our supply forecast and the resulting supply/demand balance.
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In the latest issue of DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Report, total LCD and OLED equipment spending remained relatively flat on a move-in basis despite a number of delays and cancellations. These fab schedule changes were mostly offset by higher spending for G8.5-G8.7 FMM VTE systems. 2020 -2025 spending fell just 0.2% vs. last quarter to $71.2B, while fine metal mask vacuum thermal evaporation (FMM VTE) spending rose from 10% to 12% of 2021-2025 spending, rising 18% from our last issue and overtaking exposure as the leading equipment segment over this period. The higher spend on FMM VTE tools is a result of a shift to larger substrates, full G8.5 and ½ G8.6-G8.7, as well as tandem stack adoption which boosts efficiency, brightness and lifetime and improves the OLED outlook in IT markets. Market leader Canon Tokki is a significant beneficiary of the higher tandem FMM VTE prices. By technology vs. last quarter from 2020-2025, our LCD outlook was reduced by 1% while our OLED outlook was increased by 1%.
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DSCC has released its latest update of our Advanced TV Display Cost Report, with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This quarter’s edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and cost profiles for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels from SDC.
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